Now that week three is completed, there is some evidence of how well teams are playing.  And even though nobody knows how well Nick Foles will play, maybe we can look at the Bears schedule going forward and see what is possible for 2020. 

With the NFL expanding playoffs to an NHL-like 14 teams, franchises starting 3-0 have an easier path to the postseason than underperforming teams. Several teams that started 1-2 or worse will still make the playoffs, but that will require some balls bouncing their way, favorable referee calls, and the no-injury angel smiling down upon them.

Using Bleacher Report’s week 4 power rankings, (as good as any) let’s look at the Bears schedule going forward to see what is possible. 

We all agree that power rankings are flawed, but at least it’s a way to look at many teams quickly without having to compare injury reports, draft classes, bye weeks, and a million other variables that go into quality NFL play.

Bleacher Report has the Bears ranked 14 after week three, up from 18 last week. Sitting undefeated, the Bears have bested the Lions (ranked 20 in week 4), Giants (31) and Falcons (29). The rankings were all different when they played, but in the interest of keeping things simple with a mile-high view, I am only using week four’s rankings, and from only one source. 

In the next thee games, the Bears play the Colts (13), Buccaneers (11), and Panthers (26). The Bears, in my mind, will beat either Tampa or Indy, but probably not both. And with a win over the rebuilding Panthers, the record would be 5-1. That’s a nice place to be after six games. 

The schedule turns problematic in the next three games: Rams (9), Saints (8), and Titans (12). Is it reasonable that the Bears, with Nick Foles having more time with starting team reps, could go 1-2 against this trio?  Playing bad in two games, and rising to the occasion in one does the trick. That brings the record to 6-3.  Respectable record, and in good position for a playoff run. 

Now the Bears find themselves scheduled with a trio of NFC North rivals: Vikings (22), Packers (3), and Lions (20). Vikings and Lions have issues. Beatable. Very beatable. The Packers are bulldozing opponent through their first three games, scoring a league best 40.7 points per game. Conference games are alway unpredictable, but 2-1 seems reasonable here. Even if they upset Green Bay, there’s a chance the Bears get upset by either of their other two opponents. Two wins and a loss here and the Bears are 8-4 with 4 games to play. 

The final four games are split between two NFC North teams, Vikings (22) and Packers (3), and two AFC opponents, Texans (25) and Jaguars (28).  In August, this looked extremely tough, but both Minnesota and Houston have exposed big, deep problems, not likely fixed this year. The best scenario for the Packers vs Bears game is that Green Bay has nothing to play for. The Bears winning three out of four here is not too much of a stretch.  

Final record for the 2020 Chicago Bears is… 11-5. 

Now, is this optimistic? Absolutely! But it’s fun, isn’t it? 

How far off the rails can this type of analysis get? The 2011 Bears started 7-3 before losing 5 out their last 6 to finish 8-8, watching the playoffs from home. So this is for fun, not a gambling guide. 

Strength of schedule as ranked in week four – Bears play nine games against teams with a current ranking of 20 or less, including games already played. The average of all teams’ ranks is 17.6. As the schedule sits right now, Halas Hall can thank the scheduling committee for a less difficult path than others.

Ponder this scenario. Bears miss on two games they should have won, and don’t make it up by upseting a higher ranked team. The record then is 9-7. But remember the expanded playoff schedule. 

With past history being the best predictor of future results, the Bears have a quarterback who in the past has 1) started the season on the bench, 2) finished as a starter, and 3) sailed through the playoffs, outscoring opponents 94-50 on the way to a Super Bowl win. If Nick Foles is anything, he’s streaky. Plays big in big moments, and likes to throw to the endzone. He is not Steady Eddie.  He plays with emotions and the Super Bowl MVP trophy he owns shows he can do it on the biggest stage.

Best case is the Bears go 11-5 and play a lesser opponent in the opening playoff round. Worst case could be sneaking into the playoffs, and see if Nick Foles can catch lightning in a bottle again. 

Dan Wiggins

Twitter @danwdc