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The Cubs were bounced from postseason play by the Florida Marlins and now the team’s decision-makers must figure out how to rebound in 2021 and get back into serious championship contention.
At the beginning of the 2020 Covid-19 season it appeared the club, under new manager David Ross, had erased its recent past of delivering disappointment after disappointment.
On opening day, Kyle Hendricks pitched a masterful game against the Milwaukee Brewers on opening day and the Cubs won 3-0.
The Cubs went on to win 13 of their first 16 games. That start would sustain their first-place status through tough patches. And, there were many rough patches. In fact, the Cubs were 21-25 (including postseason) after their fast start.
The Cubs earned a number three seeding in the playoffs, but it was no thanks to their core offensive players. All season long they under-performed and that trend continued into their playoff series. Javy Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber went a combined 1-for-28 against the Marlins.
Particularly disappointing in 2020 were Baez and Bryant.
Jon Greenberg of theAthletic.com looked at the analytics to confirm what the eye was seeing.
The stat weighted runs-created plus (wRC+) measures a player’s offense and 100 is considered league-average. Last year, according to FanGraphs, Báez was at 114, or 14 percent above average, and the year before that, 131. In 2014, when he debuted and struck out 41.5 percent of the time in 52 games, it was 54.
This year? Báez was at 57, near the bottom of baseball for regular players.
Bryant only played 34 games because of injuries and he was only slightly better than Báez with a 76 wRC+. He famously had just five RBIs on the season until getting hot against the White Sox and finishing with 11.
Jon Greenberg, TheAthletic
Which of these hitter will return next season? Who, if any, should be re-signed to long-term contracts?
Making things more difficult for the organization is the status of the chief decision maker. Theo Epstein has 56 weeks left on his contract. He’s openly talked about how he likes to move on from a job after a ten year run. This was year nine.
It was the Cubs starting pitching, stellar throughout the year, that kept the team in contention. Any plans for the future of this team have to start with Yu Darvish. Yes, the same pitcher consider by many to be a disastrous free-agent signing. Darvish was 8-3 with a 2.01 ERA in 12 starts.
His stuff was super-nasty in every start.
Hendricks remains one of the biggest bargains in baseball. His contract will pay him $14 million in each of the next three seasons with a team option for $16.5 million/$1.5 million buyout in 2024. Trading Hendricks would make little sense.
So, with the Cubs controlling Darvish through 2023, the team’s top two starters should be locked in for the near future.
The major pitching staff question for 2021 is whether Jon Lester will return. He wants to. But, the Cubs are unlikely to pick-up the $25 million team option and will likely pay him $10 million to go away. The lefty will be 37 years old next season and he started to show his age. In 2020, he posted a 5.16 ERA. He was 3-3 for the year and the Cubs were 6-6 in his 12 starts.
Lester is an emotional leader for the squad, but Cubs hitters could not muster three runs in their elimination game to see Lester pitch at least on more game at Wrigley Field.
Jose Quintana may be gone next season, too, as he’s a free agent. Acquired from the White Sox for Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease the lefty has fallen a bit short of expectations, although he’s had moments.
Adbert Alzolay and Alec Mills are two solid contenders for the starting rotation.
The bullpen could be set as they played extremely well in September. Jeremy Jeffress and Rowan Wick impressed and if Craig Kimbrel continues his slow road back to dominance this could be a major strength for the team.
But, will these pitchers have any leads to protect? That’s the biggest challenge ahead for the Cubs.
